Independence with Lower and Upper Probabilities
نویسنده
چکیده
It is shown that the ability of the interval probability representation to capture episte mological independence is severely limited. Two events are epistemologically indepen dent if knowledge of the first event does not alter belief (i.e., probability bounds) about the second. However, independence in this form can only exist in a 2-monotone probabil ity function in degenerate casesi.e., if the prior bounds are either point probabilities or entirely vacuous. Additional limitations are characterized for other classes of lower prob abilities as well. It is argued that these phe nomena are a matter of interpretation. They appear to be limitations when one interprets probability bounds as a measure of epistemo logical indeterminacy (i.e., uncertainty aris ing from a lack of knowledge), but are ex actly as one would expect when probability intervals are interpreted as representations of ontological indeterminacy (indeterminacy in troduced by structural approximations).
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تاریخ انتشار 1996